Policy & Public Health
Global breast cancer cases could exceed 3.5 million annually by 2050: Lancet Oncology study
A global study published in The Lancet Oncology predicts that breast cancer cases could exceed 3.5 million annually by 2050, with deaths rising significantly, particularly in low-income countries with limited healthcare access.
A new global analysis published in The Lancet Oncology warns that breast cancer cases among women worldwide could rise sharply in the coming decades, reaching more than 3.5 million new cases each year by 2050.
The study, conducted by the Global Burden of Disease Breast Cancer Collaborators, estimates that annual cases may increase by nearly one-third from 2.3 million in 2023. At the same time, yearly deaths from the disease could rise by 44%, from around 764,000 in 2023 to about 1.4 million by 2050.
Researchers analysed health data from 204 countries and territories using cancer registries, national mortality records and epidemiological modelling to evaluate the global burden of breast cancer between 1990 and 2023 and project trends through 2050.
The study, conducted by the Global Burden of Disease Breast Cancer Collaborators, estimates that annual cases may increase by nearly one-third from 2.3 million in 2023. At the same time, yearly deaths from the disease could rise by 44%, from around 764,000 in 2023 to about 1.4 million by 2050.
Researchers analysed health data from 204 countries and territories using cancer registries, national mortality records and epidemiological modelling to evaluate the global burden of breast cancer between 1990 and 2023 and project trends through 2050.
Breast cancer remains the most commonly diagnosed cancer among women globally. While incidence rates remain highest in high-income countries, the fastest growth in cases is occurring in low-income nations, where healthcare systems often face limitations in screening, early detection and treatment access.
The study also highlights major inequalities in outcomes. Between 1990 and 2023, age-standardised death rates declined by about 30% in high-income countries due to improved screening and treatment. In contrast, mortality rates nearly doubled in low-income countries, reflecting delayed diagnosis and restricted access to quality care.
Researchers further noted a growing rise in breast cancer among younger women aged 20–54 years, with incidence increasing by 29% since 1990.
The study also highlights major inequalities in outcomes. Between 1990 and 2023, age-standardised death rates declined by about 30% in high-income countries due to improved screening and treatment. In contrast, mortality rates nearly doubled in low-income countries, reflecting delayed diagnosis and restricted access to quality care.
Researchers further noted a growing rise in breast cancer among younger women aged 20–54 years, with incidence increasing by 29% since 1990.
The analysis found that around 28% of the global breast cancer burden in 2023 was linked to modifiable lifestyle risk factors such as high red meat consumption, tobacco exposure, high blood sugar, obesity, alcohol use and physical inactivity.
Experts emphasise that preventive lifestyle measures, improved screening programmes and stronger health systems could significantly reduce the global burden of breast cancer and help ensure equitable survival outcomes for women worldwide.
Experts emphasise that preventive lifestyle measures, improved screening programmes and stronger health systems could significantly reduce the global burden of breast cancer and help ensure equitable survival outcomes for women worldwide.
