A recent global modelling study warns that around 5.1 million people in India may face the risk of contracting chikungunya each year, with the figure potentially rising to 12.1 million under broader risk scenarios. The research, led by teams including scientists from the London School of Hygiene & Tropical Medicine, used machine-learning models combining climate, mosquito vector occurrence, precipitation, temperature and socioeconomic indicators to map the disease’s threat across regions.
While official case numbers remain far lower—with fewer than 5,000 confirmed cases in India up to August 2025—the study suggests significant underreporting and underestimation of chikungunya’s true burden. In Mumbai, for example, confirmed cases dropped from 220 in August to 139 in September, though private hospitals continue to treat patients with severe joint pain, often requiring hospitalization.
Globally, the study projects that more than 34.9 million people could be at risk of chikungunya annually. South Asian countries (including India, Pakistan, Indonesia) along with Brazil are seen shouldering the highest share of this burden. The analysis also indicates that India and Brazil may together account for nearly half of the global impact.
A particularly concerning aspect is the long-term disability associated with the disease: about half of infected individuals go on to suffer prolonged joint and muscle pain, with the greatest burden falling on those in the 40–60 age group. Young children and the elderly are especially vulnerable to acute symptoms.
Because there is no specific antiviral treatment, management of chikungunya remains symptomatic—focused on pain relief, fever control, rest and hydration. The study underscores the urgent need to strengthen surveillance, increase diagnostic testing, improve reporting systems, and scale up vector control measures, especially in high-risk regions.
With climate change and expanding mosquito habitats, regions not historically affected may become vulnerable in the coming years. The researchers caution that preventive action and public health preparedness are vital to avert larger outbreaks and reduce the disability burden caused by chikungunya.